The cheapest defense-drone name in its group is cheap for reasons the filings spell out, and we are waiting at the floor rather than buying the discount. AeroVironment closed at $144.65 on Friday, September 4, about 64.7% below its October closing high, and our watch level stays $137, the level we set on September 4 [4][5].
The year that produced the discount was enormous and messy at once. Revenue for the fiscal year ended April 30, 2026 was $1,976.8 million, up 141% after the BlueHalo acquisition, while gross margin fell from 39% to 25% on the heavier services mix [1]. The same 10-K carries a $240.7 million goodwill impairment in the Space unit after a program termination, and management reports that disclosure controls were not effective as of April 30, 2026 because of material weaknesses in internal control [2]. That combination, growth bought with margin and control problems, is our read of why the stock sits at 3.9x enterprise value to revenue: the bottom of its own five-year range (low 4.8x, median 5.1x) and 18% below the peer median of 4.8x [3].
A multiple this far below the company's own history is only actionable if the problems are shrinking, and that gets tested this week. The fiscal 2027 first quarter is on the earnings calendar for Tuesday, September 8 or Wednesday, September 9; the calendar itself is split [6]. The tape offers no urgency meanwhile: insiders made zero open-market purchases in the last 180 days against 9 sales, and short interest stood at 9.68% of the float at the August 14 settlement [4].
Our $137 sits just above the year's lowest close of $136.68 on June 25, beneath the $144.64 to $201.92 band that held eight in ten closes since March 17 [5]. We hold no position. We would be wrong at that level, and the file moves toward closed, if the fiscal 2027 first-quarter filing shows another goodwill impairment or gross margin below the 25% reported for fiscal 2026. We come back Wednesday, September 9, with the report.
Chart: AVAV daily closes, September 2025 to September 2026 (Alpaca, as of 2026-09-04), marking the $409.83 high on October 13, the $136.68 low on June 25, and the $137 watch level.
The call
Stance: watch
Level: 137
Horizon: 2026-10-31
Checkpoint: 2026-09-09
What closes the file: AeroVironment's fiscal 2027 first-quarter filing shows a new goodwill impairment or gross margin below the 25% reported for fiscal 2026.
Receipts6
[1] 10-K filed 2026-06-29 (accession 0001104659-26-078906), Item 7, Results of Operations: revenue $1,976.8 million vs $820.6 million, up 141%; gross margin from 39% to 25%.
[2] 10-K filed 2026-06-29, Item 7 ($240.7 million goodwill impairment, Space reporting unit) and Item 9A (disclosure controls not effective as of April 30, 2026, material weaknesses).
[3] Valuation, 2026-09-07: EV/revenue 3.9x vs own five-year low 4.8x, median 5.1x, and peer median 4.8x (18% below).
[4] Trading activity, 2026-09-04 and prior: 0 open-market insider purchases and 9 sales in 180 days (most recent 2026-08-17); short interest 9.68% of float at the 2026-08-14 settlement.
[5] Market context, computed 2026-09-07: close $144.65 on 2026-09-04, 64.7% below the $409.83 high of 2025-10-13; lowest close $136.68 on 2026-06-25; 96 of 120 closes since 2026-03-17 between $144.64 and $201.92. Open watch on this name since 2026-09-04 at level $137, prior conviction.
[6] Earnings calendar entries dated 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-07 listing the AVAV report for September 8 and September 9.
