The research.
On the record.

Our Read. AeroVironment more than doubled revenue in fiscal 2026, to $1,976.8 million from $820.6 million, a 141% increase driven by the BlueHalo acquisition [1]. The stock has fallen 64.6% from its October closing high anyway [6]. Our read: the damage in the accounts is mostly the accounting of a just-closed deal plus one cancelled program, not a broken franchise, and the price now sits below every valuation the market has put on this company in five years. Strength of belief: medium. This is our interpretation; the filing itself does not say the worst is past.

Where we stand. Not positioned. Looking for an entry at $137, with the next quarterly filing showing backlog still growing. That level sits at the floor of the last year's trading: the lowest close of the past 52 weeks was $136.68 on June 25, 2026, and the stock moves 3.57% on an average day, so $137 is a price real sellers have recently accepted, not a hope [6].

The situation. The ugly numbers are real. Gross margin fell from 39% to 25% [1]. A $240.7 million goodwill charge hit the Space unit after the customer terminated the SCAR agreement for convenience in March 2026 [2]. Management concluded its disclosure controls were not effective at April 30, 2026 because of material weaknesses [3]. Insiders made zero open-market purchases in the last 180 days, with 10 sales totalling 2,599 shares, most recently August 17, 2026 [7].

The stock. At $145.11 the company trades at 4.0x enterprise value to revenue. Its own five-year range runs from a low of 4.8x to a high of 6.0x, and the peer median is 4.8x, so today's multiple is below anything in its own history and below the group [6]. Funded backlog was $1,120.7 million at January 31, 2026, up from $726.6 million at April 30, 2025 [5]. The $747.5 million of convertible notes converts at roughly $322.40, more than double today's price, so dilution from them is a distant concern [4].

The call. Watch. We would buy near $137, the bottom of the past year's trading range. Checkpoint: October 15, 2026, our scoring date. What proves us wrong: the next quarterly filing showing funded backlog below the $1,120.7 million reported at January 31, 2026, which would mean growth stalled while the margin and control problems are still open. Our book holds no AVAV position.

Receipts.

[1] 10-K filed 2026-06-29 (accession 0001104659-26-078906), Item 7 MD&A: revenue $1,976.8 million for fiscal year ended April 30, 2026 vs $820.6 million prior year, an increase of 141%; gross margin decreasing from 39% to 25%.

[2] 10-K, Item 7: goodwill impairment charge of $240.7 million from a decrease in forecasted results of the Space reporting unit; customer terminated the SCAR agreement for convenience in March 2026.

[3] 10-K, Item 9A Controls and Procedures: disclosure controls and procedures were not effective as of April 30, 2026 due to material weaknesses.

[4] 10-K, Item 7 Liquidity and Note 11: $747.5 million of Notes outstanding as of April 30, 2026; initial conversion price approximately $322.40 per share; approximately $336.8 million available under the Revolving Facility.

[5] 10-Q filed 2026-03-11 (accession 0001104659-26-025979), Item 2 Backlog: funded backlog approximately $1,120.7 million as of January 31, 2026, vs $726.6 million as of April 30, 2025; unfunded backlog $2,968.8 million including $1,493.2 million of unexercised SCAR options no longer expected to be awarded.

[6] Alpaca daily bars and valuation data, 2026-09-04: close $145.11; 52-week closes ranged $136.68 (2026-06-25) to $409.83 (2025-10-13), 64.6% below the high; average daily move 3.57%; EV/revenue 4.0x vs own five-year low 4.8x, median 5.1x, high 6.0x; peer median EV/revenue 4.8x.

[7] Trading activity, 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-14: Form 4 filings show 0 open-market purchases and 10 sales totalling 2,599 shares in the last 180 days, most recent 2026-08-17; FINRA short interest 3,666,021 shares, 9.68% of float, 2.93 days to cover at the 2026-08-14 settlement.

Our Read. Uranium Royalty's trailing P/E of 10.0x looks cheap, at the 0th percentile of its own two-year history (median 24.3x) and below the peer median of 11.7x [3], but the earnings behind it are mostly a one-time event: FY2026 revenue was $186.8 million of physical uranium sold out of inventory against just $0.145 million of royalty revenue [1]. Our read is that the multiple is unreadable until the company reports a combined quarter with the soda-ash royalties it bought after year-end, so we wait. Strength of belief: medium, because the cash and the new royalty assets are real but no combined operating period exists yet.

Positioning status. Not positioned. Looking for an entry at $4.19 with a first combined quarter showing soda-ash royalty cash flow.

The company. The company that exists today is not the one the FY2026 statements describe. On July 27, 2026, after fiscal year-end, it closed the Sweetwater combination: $330 million cash plus 223,252,749 shares to the sellers, adding five producing Green River Basin soda-ash operations under generally 8% production royalties, roughly 850,000 fee surface acres, and about 4.5 million acres of mineral rights [2]. It also took on $688.8 million of 5.32% senior secured notes due 2040 with distribution blockers, and drew $40.0 million on a facility that must be repaid by January 31, 2027, with 100% of any equity-issuance proceeds applied to repayment until then [2]. Fourteen employees run this, and every royalty depends on third-party operators [2]. Attributable soda-ash volumes in the disclosed table fell from 6,475,041 short tons in FY2025 to 4,819,284 in FY2026 [2].

The situation. FY2026 net income of $40.2 million sits on 2,250,000 pounds of uranium sold; the remaining 593,255 pounds were sold after year-end at $85.91 a pound for $51.0 million [1][2]. The inventory is now gone. What remains is $242.0 million of year-end cash [1], a thin uranium royalty book (100% of royalty revenue came from one mine, Langer Heinrich [1]), and the untested soda-ash platform.

The stock. UROY closed at $4.51 on 2026-09-04, up 61.8% over 60 trading days and 17.3% below its January closing high of $5.46 [3]. Eight in ten closes since mid-March sat between $2.78 and $4.19, and the name falls hard in bad stretches: 52.2% from January to July, not recovered; 32.2% last fall, recovered in 44 trading days [3]. Our entry at $4.19 is the top of that heavily traded band, a level real buyers held for months, not a balance-sheet floor. On EV/EBITDA the stock sits at 3.8x against a peer median of 14.8x [3], but that EBITDA carries the same one-time inventory sales, so we do not lean on it.

The tape. Thursday was quiet: 633,068 shares traded against a 2.14 million 20-day average, 30% of normal [4]. Short interest was 4.02 million shares at the August 14 settlement, 3.21% of the float, 1.39 days to cover [4]. No insider transactions on file in the last 180 days [4]. Our ledger carries no prior entries on this name and we have no open hypothesis on it.

What to watch. The first reported period that includes Sweetwater: does soda-ash royalty cash flow show up at a run rate that justifies the $330 million plus 59% of the share count paid for it [2]? And the bridge: the $40.0 million draw must be zero by January 31, 2027, with equity proceeds captured for repayment first, which caps what new issuance can fund until then [2].

The call. We like the asset base and the cash, but the earnings the market can see today came from selling inventory that no longer exists. We wait for $4.19, the top of the band where the stock traded eight days in ten since March, and for evidence of combined royalty cash flow. We will score this by January 31, 2027, the company's own bridge repayment deadline. We are wrong if the first combined results show soda-ash royalty revenue arriving at scale while the stock never returns to $4.19: that would mean the platform proved itself and we missed it waiting on price.

Receipts.

[1] Form 10-K (FY ended 2026-04-30), Item 7 MD&A and consolidated statements of income: uranium inventory sales $186.807 million, royalty revenue $0.145 million (100% Langer Heinrich, Note 12), net income $40.249 million, 2,250,000 lbs sold; balance sheet: cash $241.956 million.

[2] Form 10-K, Item 1 / Item 2 / Note 14 subsequent events: Arrangement closed 2026-07-27, $330 million cash plus 223,252,749 shares (sellers 59%); remaining 593,255 lbs sold at $85.91/lb for $51.0 million; Royalty Notes $688,778,929 at 5.32% due 2040; $40.0 million facility draw, repayment on or before 2027-01-31 with 100% of public-offering net proceeds applied; five production-stage trona operations, generally 8% production royalties, ~850,000 fee surface acres, ~4.5 million acres of mineral rights; volumes 4,819,284 short tons FY2026 vs 6,475,041 FY2025; fourteen employees as of 2026-07-28.

[3] Market context, 2026-09-04: close $4.51; +61.8% over 60 days; high close $5.46 (2026-01-28), 17.3% below; band $2.78 to $4.19 held 96 of 120 closes since 2026-03-17; drawdowns 52.2% (unrecovered) and 32.2% (44 days to recover); trailing P/E 10.0x vs own median 24.3x and peer median 11.7x; EV/EBITDA 3.8x vs peer median 14.8x.

[4] Trading activity, 2026-09-04: 633,068 shares traded against a 2.14 million 20-day average; short interest 4,021,423 shares, 3.21% of float, 1.39 days to cover at the 2026-08-14 settlement; no Form 4 filings in the last 180 days.

The jobs report lands this morning, and it is the only scheduled event that can move the tape today [2]. The market comes in calm: the VIX sits at 14.9, a normal zone, and the overnight read is risk on [1]. My reading: a calm tape into a jobs number cuts both ways. A print near expectations changes little; a surprise in either direction hits a market that has not braced for one.

What to watch

Nothing else sits on the economic calendar today. NFP is the day [2].

Earnings in the window

Nothing in our book reports today. In the next week, AeroVironment (AVAV) reports, with the calendar showing dates of September 8 and September 9 against a July 31 fiscal quarter end, and estimates of $0.34 and $0.32 [3]. My reading: treat the earlier date as the one to prepare for and confirm the exact timing before it. Uranium Royalty (UROY) reports September 10, with the street looking for $0.05 in earnings per share [3].

The book overnight

We hold seven names: AMZN, AXON, HOOD, NBIS, NVDA, PLPC, UMAC [4]. None of them report in the next seven days, so today's risk to the book is the macro number, not a company event. With the VIX this low, a hot or cold jobs print is the one thing on the schedule that could swing all seven at once.

The day in one line

Quiet calendar, calm tape, one jobs report. Watch the reaction more than the number.

Receipts:

[1] VIX 14.9 at the premarket read, risk on, normal zone, 2026-09-04.

[2] Economic calendar, 2026-09-04: NFP (jobs report), the only listed release.

[3] Earnings calendar, next 7 days: AVAV 2026-09-08 est $0.34 and 2026-09-09 est $0.32, both for fiscal period ending 2026-07-31; UROY 2026-09-10 est $0.05.

[4] Our open positions at the overnight read: seven names (AMZN, AXON, HOOD, NBIS, NVDA, PLPC, UMAC).

PL: a record quarter, and a guide that walks it back

Planet reported record fiscal Q2 revenue of $116.1 million, up 58% year over year, and the stock traded 28.68 million shares against a 20-day average of 6.33 million, so the market treated this as a real event [1][4]. We have no open hypothesis on this name; this reads as a fresh look.

The quarter itself was strong. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $13.9 million versus $6.4 million a year ago, GAAP net loss narrowed to $9.4 million from $22.6 million, and the company ended with $865.4 million in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments [1]. Part of that cash is newly sold stock: roughly $120 million raised through the At-The-Market program during the quarter at an average net price of $31.95 per share [1]. The options market's read on 2026-09-03 put the shares near $18.36 [4]. Buyers of those ATM shares are well underwater, and management sold equity at a much better price than today's.

The forward numbers are the problem. Fiscal Q3 guidance is $101 million to $105 million of revenue, a sequential decline, with an adjusted EBITDA loss of ($6) million to ($1) million [2]. Remaining performance obligations fell to $753.1 million at July 31 from $852.4 million at January 31, and backlog fell to $814.9 million from $900.4 million over the same stretch [3]. Our read: the Q2 record leaned on revenue recognized ahead of the book refilling, and the next two prints have to show new contract wins (NGA, the German tender, satellite services) converting into RPO growth, or the 58% growth rate is a peak, not a trend.

Insiders offer no comfort either way: zero open-market purchases in the last 180 days, twelve sales totalling 927,798 shares, most recently the CFO at $22.08 on July 23; whether those sales were pre-arranged is not reported [4].

The call. We are watching, not buying. The record quarter is real, but revenue is guided down sequentially and the contract backlog shrank since January. We want to see RPO turn up at the fiscal Q3 report (quarter ends October 31, 2026); we will score this by December 10, 2026. If Q3 revenue lands above the $105 million top of guidance and RPO grows from $753.1 million, our caution was wrong.

Receipts

[1] 8-K EX-99.1, accession 0001193125-26-381874, filed 2026-09-03, highlights: record Q2 revenue $116.1M up 58% YoY; adjusted EBITDA $13.9M vs $6.4M; net loss ($9.4)M vs ($22.6)M; cash, equivalents and short-term investments $865.4M; ~$120M ATM proceeds at $31.95 average net price. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1836833/000119312526381874/pl-ex99_1.htm

[2] Same 8-K EX-99.1, Financial Outlook: fiscal Q3 revenue ~$101M to $105M, adjusted EBITDA loss ~($6)M to ($1)M; full year revenue ~$430M to $441M.

[3] Same 8-K EX-99.1, backlog reconciliation table: RPO $753,117 thousand at July 31, 2026 vs $852,435 thousand at January 31, 2026; backlog $814,863 thousand vs $900,427 thousand.

[4] Trading activity, 2026-09-03: 28.68 million shares traded against a 6.33 million 20-day average (453.19% of normal); options positioning read with shares near $18.36; Form 4 window of 180 days shows 0 open-market purchases, 12 sales totalling 927,798 shares, CFO sale at $22.08 on 2026-07-23, plan status not reported.

We trimmed twice today, both in the rule-based EMA sleeve, and both were harvests into strength. The autonomous and conviction sleeves did not trade.

Trimmed AMZN, sizing half the position @ 259.04. The harvester's guarantee layer fired: the position's harvest ratio had fallen to 0.0 against a 0.5 floor, so the rule locked in gains by cutting the position in half at the decision price of 259.04 [1]. This account of the day comes from decisions recorded at decision time, not reconstructed after the fact [1].

Trimmed HOOD, sizing 12.5% of the position @ 119.14. The level-one harvest score reached 30, driven mostly by volume (15 of the 30) and distance from the peak (the stock sat 9.45% below its recent high of 121.94 at the decision), with RSI at 67.52 contributing the rest [2]. The rule took a 12.5% trim. That turned out to be selling into the early innings of a much bigger day.

The tape did the rest. The market was firm: SPY rose 1.04% and QQQ 1.19% [3]. Inside our book of seven open names, HOOD was the story, up 16.57% on 251.09% of its own 20-day average volume, a genuinely loud move [4]. Our trim filled in the morning at 119.14, well before the day's full run. The options posture around HOOD as of September 2 showed a gamma flip near 106.70 with a call wall at 110, and the stock blew through both; posture is context, never a trigger [4]. AXON rose 6.16% on 83.69% of normal volume, UMAC 4.08% on 53.61%, and NBIS 3.20% on 47.45%, all quieter than their moves suggest [4]. The three other names in the book moved less than 2% [4]. No harvest or entry rule fired on the other movers; the two trims above were the only triggers the rules produced today.

Receipts 1. Decision record, EMA sleeve, AMZN sell, 2026-09-03 13:43: trigger harvest_level, layer L3_guarantee, reason "harvest_ratio 0.0 < 0.5", trim 50%, price at decision 259.035, fill 259.04.

2. Decision record, EMA sleeve, HOOD sell, 2026-09-03 13:58: trigger harvest_level, L1 score 30 (rsi 3.36, peak 9.45, vol 15), RSI 67.52, gain 9.45% vs peak price 121.94, trim 12.5%, fill 119.14.

3. Daily index tape, 2026-09-03: SPY +1.04%, QQQ +1.19%.

4. Our open positions and daily price/volume tape, 2026-09-03: 7 open names; HOOD +16.57% on 251.09% of 20-day volume, options positioning as of 2026-09-02 (gamma flip 106.7, call wall 110.0, put wall 105.0); AXON +6.16% on 83.69%; UMAC +4.08% on 53.61%; NBIS +3.20% on 47.45%; 3 names under 2%.

EnerSys (ENS), $180.74

Our Read. The first quarter of fiscal 2027 looks like a big profit step up, but a $30.9 million tariff refund sat inside cost of goods sold, so we cannot yet tell how much of the margin gain is the plant closures working and how much is one-time money [2]. Sales grew $42.6 million, or 4.8% [1]. Our read is the cost story is real but unproven for one more quarter. Strength of belief: medium.

Positioning status. Not positioned. We held ENS twice in August and sold at losses of 14.3% on August 13 and 6.5% and 4.3% on August 28. Looking for an entry at $176 with a quarter that holds gross margin without refund help. There is no open hypothesis on this name, and our ledger carries no prior entries on management's promises.

The company. A 125-year-old battery maker in a chemistry transition: closing flooded lead-acid plants, taking Section 45X production credits, and building a smaller lithium plant now expected to start construction in the first half of fiscal 2028, backed by a revised DOE grant of about $150 million [3]. The filings carry no fiscal 2027 sales or earnings guidance [1].

The stock. ENS closed at $180.74 on September 3, 25.7% below its May 26 closing high of $243.34; it fell 27.5% from that high to $176.44 on July 29 and has not recovered [5]. Eight in ten closes since mid-March sat between $177.09 and $232.67 [5]. At today's price it trades at 18.9x trailing earnings, under its own five-year median of 20.2x and 17% below the peer median of 22.7x [5]. Our $176 entry is the July low, the floor where the last fall stopped, on a multiple already below both yardsticks. What would prove us wrong at that level: fiscal Q2 holds margin without refunds and the stock never comes back to $176.

What to watch. The company is returning cash while we wait: $49.96 million of buybacks in the quarter, another 249,893 shares for about $50.0 million through August 7, and a raised dividend of $0.2875 [4]. Cash was $530.7 million with $632.9 million undrawn [3]. Tape context: September 3 volume was 111,090 shares against a 572,202 twenty-day average, 19% of normal, and there were no open-market insider purchases in the last 180 days, only awards [6].

Receipts

[1] 10-Q filed 2026-08-12, accession 0001628280-26-056208, Item 2 Results of Operations: net sales up $42.6 million or 4.8%; absence of fiscal 2027 guidance per full-document search.

[2] Same 10-Q, Note 9: $30,870 thousand reduction in cost of goods sold from IEEPA tariff refunds.

[3] Same 10-Q, balance sheet and Note 11 and Item 2 Liquidity: cash $530,663 thousand; $632,896 thousand available and undrawn; revised DOE grant approximately $150 million; lithium construction first half fiscal 2028.

[4] Same 10-Q, cash flows and Note 17: treasury stock purchases $49,958 thousand in the quarter; 249,893 shares for approximately $50,042 thousand July 6 to August 7; dividend $0.2875 per share approved 2026-08-12.

[5] Alpaca daily bars and valuation data, 2026-09-03: close $180.74; high $243.34 (2026-05-26); 27.5% drawdown to $176.44 (2026-07-29), unrecovered; 96 of 120 closes between $177.09 and $232.67; trailing P/E 18.9x vs own five-year median 20.2x and peer median 22.7x.

[6] Trading activity, 2026-09-03: 111,090 shares traded against a 572,202 twenty-day average; insider Form 4s over 180 days show zero open-market purchases, most recent filings 2026-08-14 awards.

Quiet tape, one report on deck. The VIX sits at 15.1, a normal reading, and risk appetite is on [1]. Nothing on the economic calendar today [2]. That leaves earnings as the only scheduled way this day gets interesting, and only one lands before the week's next batch.

The regime

At 15.1 the VIX is telling you the market expects an ordinary day [1]. No macro releases to trade around, so any real movement today comes from single names, not the tape.

Earnings, this week and next

Planet Labs reports today, with the street looking for a loss of $0.18 per share (EPS) [3]. It is not in our book, but it is the only company on the calendar until next week.

Then the window fills in: AeroVironment shows on the calendar for both September 8 and September 9, with EPS estimates of $0.34 and $0.32 respectively [3]. Two dates for one report is a calendar quirk we cannot resolve from here; my reading is to treat the 8th as the live date and confirm. Uranium Royalty follows on September 10, estimate $0.05 [3].

The book

Seven names open: AMZN, AXON, HOOD, NBIS, NVDA, PLPC, UMAC [4]. None of them reports in the next seven days, which is the cleanest thing about this week. We hold through a quiet stretch with no forced decisions.

What to watch

With no macro prints and no book earnings, today is a day to let positions work. The one thing that changes that is a sharp VIX move off 15.1; short of that, we sit.

[1] VIX 15.1 at the premarket read, risk on, normal zone, 2026-09-03

[2] Economic calendar, 2026-09-03: no releases

[3] Earnings calendar: PL 2026-09-03, est -$0.18; AVAV 2026-09-08 est $0.34 and 2026-09-09 est $0.32; UROY 2026-09-10, est $0.05

[4] Our open positions at the overnight read, 2026-09-03: seven names