The research.
On the record.

Our Read. AeroVironment more than doubled revenue in fiscal 2026, to $1,976.8 million from $820.6 million, a 141% increase driven by the BlueHalo acquisition [1]. The stock has fallen 64.6% from its October closing high anyway [6]. Our read: the damage in the accounts is mostly the accounting of a just-closed deal plus one cancelled program, not a broken franchise, and the price now sits below every valuation the market has put on this company in five years. Strength of belief: medium. This is our interpretation; the filing itself does not say the worst is past.

Where we stand. Not positioned. Looking for an entry at $137, with the next quarterly filing showing backlog still growing. That level sits at the floor of the last year's trading: the lowest close of the past 52 weeks was $136.68 on June 25, 2026, and the stock moves 3.57% on an average day, so $137 is a price real sellers have recently accepted, not a hope [6].

The situation. The ugly numbers are real. Gross margin fell from 39% to 25% [1]. A $240.7 million goodwill charge hit the Space unit after the customer terminated the SCAR agreement for convenience in March 2026 [2]. Management concluded its disclosure controls were not effective at April 30, 2026 because of material weaknesses [3]. Insiders made zero open-market purchases in the last 180 days, with 10 sales totalling 2,599 shares, most recently August 17, 2026 [7].

The stock. At $145.11 the company trades at 4.0x enterprise value to revenue. Its own five-year range runs from a low of 4.8x to a high of 6.0x, and the peer median is 4.8x, so today's multiple is below anything in its own history and below the group [6]. Funded backlog was $1,120.7 million at January 31, 2026, up from $726.6 million at April 30, 2025 [5]. The $747.5 million of convertible notes converts at roughly $322.40, more than double today's price, so dilution from them is a distant concern [4].

The call. Watch. We would buy near $137, the bottom of the past year's trading range. Checkpoint: October 15, 2026, our scoring date. What proves us wrong: the next quarterly filing showing funded backlog below the $1,120.7 million reported at January 31, 2026, which would mean growth stalled while the margin and control problems are still open. Our book holds no AVAV position.

Receipts.

[1] 10-K filed 2026-06-29 (accession 0001104659-26-078906), Item 7 MD&A: revenue $1,976.8 million for fiscal year ended April 30, 2026 vs $820.6 million prior year, an increase of 141%; gross margin decreasing from 39% to 25%.

[2] 10-K, Item 7: goodwill impairment charge of $240.7 million from a decrease in forecasted results of the Space reporting unit; customer terminated the SCAR agreement for convenience in March 2026.

[3] 10-K, Item 9A Controls and Procedures: disclosure controls and procedures were not effective as of April 30, 2026 due to material weaknesses.

[4] 10-K, Item 7 Liquidity and Note 11: $747.5 million of Notes outstanding as of April 30, 2026; initial conversion price approximately $322.40 per share; approximately $336.8 million available under the Revolving Facility.

[5] 10-Q filed 2026-03-11 (accession 0001104659-26-025979), Item 2 Backlog: funded backlog approximately $1,120.7 million as of January 31, 2026, vs $726.6 million as of April 30, 2025; unfunded backlog $2,968.8 million including $1,493.2 million of unexercised SCAR options no longer expected to be awarded.

[6] Alpaca daily bars and valuation data, 2026-09-04: close $145.11; 52-week closes ranged $136.68 (2026-06-25) to $409.83 (2025-10-13), 64.6% below the high; average daily move 3.57%; EV/revenue 4.0x vs own five-year low 4.8x, median 5.1x, high 6.0x; peer median EV/revenue 4.8x.

[7] Trading activity, 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-14: Form 4 filings show 0 open-market purchases and 10 sales totalling 2,599 shares in the last 180 days, most recent 2026-08-17; FINRA short interest 3,666,021 shares, 9.68% of float, 2.93 days to cover at the 2026-08-14 settlement.

Our Read. Uranium Royalty looks cheap on the screen and we do not trust the screen. At $4.47 the stock trades at 10.0x trailing earnings, below its own two-year median of 24.3x and below the peer median of 11.7x [1]. Our open hypothesis on this name, sealed today with low belief, says the earnings the market can see came from selling inventory that no longer exists [2]. Cheap on a multiple built from one-time sales is not cheap.

Positioning status. Watch. Not positioned; our book holds no UROY [3]. Looking for an entry at $4.19 with evidence the revenue repeats.

The stock. The price has run: up 60.2% over 60 trading days, now 18.1% below the January closing high of $5.46 [1]. Eight in ten closes since mid-March sat between $2.78 and $4.19, so today's $4.47 is above where this stock has normally traded this year [1]. When it falls, it falls hard: 52.2% from January to July, not recovered [1]. $4.19, the top of that band, is where we would rather own it.

The business. Trailing revenue is $397.3 million with a 24.1% profit margin, and the quarter to April 2026 grew revenue 1,123.4% year on year [1]. Growth of that size in a royalty and physical-holdings company is the tell that supports our read: this looks like inventory being sold, not a run rate. We have no filing on hand for this name and the ledger carries no prior management entries, so the repeatability question stays open until the next reported period.

The tape. Thursday traded 965,101 shares against a 2.16 million 20-day average, 44.78% of normal [4]. No insider Form 4 filings in the last 180 days, and short interest at the 2026-08-14 settlement was 4.02 million shares, 3.21% of the float, 1.39 days to cover [4]. Quiet, in both directions.

Track record. One prior call on this name, none yet graded [2].

The call. Watch. We want UROY at $4.19, the top of its normal 2026 trading band, and only with revenue that repeats. Checkpoint is 2027-01-31. We are wrong if the next reported period shows royalty revenue arriving at scale while the stock holds above $4.19: that would mean the platform proved out and waiting on price was the mistake.

Receipts:

[1] Market context, 2026-09-04 (Alpaca daily bars; FMP profile and key-metrics): close $4.47; trailing P/E 10.0x vs own median 24.3x and peer median 11.7x; +60.2% over 60 days; 18.1% below the $5.46 high of 2026-01-28; 96 of 120 closes since 2026-03-17 between $2.78 and $4.19; 52.2% drawdown to $2.61 (2026-07-16), not recovered; trailing revenue $397.3 million, profit margin 24.1%, quarterly revenue growth 1,123.4% year on year (quarter ended 2026-04-30).

[2] Our hypothesis ledger: hypothesis sealed 2026-09-04, watch, low belief, entry level $4.19, checkpoint 2027-01-31; one call made on this name, zero graded.

[3] Our book, 2026-09-04: no UROY position held.

[4] Trading activity, 2026-09-04: 965,101 shares traded against a 2.16 million 20-day average, 44.78% of normal; no insider Form 4 filings in 180 days; short interest 4,021,423 shares at the 2026-08-14 settlement, 3.21% of float, 1.39 days to cover.

EnerSys (ENS), $180.74

Our Read. The first quarter of fiscal 2027 looks like a big profit step up, but a $30.9 million tariff refund sat inside cost of goods sold, so we cannot yet tell how much of the margin gain is the plant closures working and how much is one-time money [2]. Sales grew $42.6 million, or 4.8% [1]. Our read is the cost story is real but unproven for one more quarter. Strength of belief: medium.

Positioning status. Not positioned. We held ENS twice in August and sold at losses of 14.3% on August 13 and 6.5% and 4.3% on August 28. Looking for an entry at $176 with a quarter that holds gross margin without refund help. There is no open hypothesis on this name, and our ledger carries no prior entries on management's promises.

The company. A 125-year-old battery maker in a chemistry transition: closing flooded lead-acid plants, taking Section 45X production credits, and building a smaller lithium plant now expected to start construction in the first half of fiscal 2028, backed by a revised DOE grant of about $150 million [3]. The filings carry no fiscal 2027 sales or earnings guidance [1].

The stock. ENS closed at $180.74 on September 3, 25.7% below its May 26 closing high of $243.34; it fell 27.5% from that high to $176.44 on July 29 and has not recovered [5]. Eight in ten closes since mid-March sat between $177.09 and $232.67 [5]. At today's price it trades at 18.9x trailing earnings, under its own five-year median of 20.2x and 17% below the peer median of 22.7x [5]. Our $176 entry is the July low, the floor where the last fall stopped, on a multiple already below both yardsticks. What would prove us wrong at that level: fiscal Q2 holds margin without refunds and the stock never comes back to $176.

What to watch. The company is returning cash while we wait: $49.96 million of buybacks in the quarter, another 249,893 shares for about $50.0 million through August 7, and a raised dividend of $0.2875 [4]. Cash was $530.7 million with $632.9 million undrawn [3]. Tape context: September 3 volume was 111,090 shares against a 572,202 twenty-day average, 19% of normal, and there were no open-market insider purchases in the last 180 days, only awards [6].

Receipts

[1] 10-Q filed 2026-08-12, accession 0001628280-26-056208, Item 2 Results of Operations: net sales up $42.6 million or 4.8%; absence of fiscal 2027 guidance per full-document search.

[2] Same 10-Q, Note 9: $30,870 thousand reduction in cost of goods sold from IEEPA tariff refunds.

[3] Same 10-Q, balance sheet and Note 11 and Item 2 Liquidity: cash $530,663 thousand; $632,896 thousand available and undrawn; revised DOE grant approximately $150 million; lithium construction first half fiscal 2028.

[4] Same 10-Q, cash flows and Note 17: treasury stock purchases $49,958 thousand in the quarter; 249,893 shares for approximately $50,042 thousand July 6 to August 7; dividend $0.2875 per share approved 2026-08-12.

[5] Alpaca daily bars and valuation data, 2026-09-03: close $180.74; high $243.34 (2026-05-26); 27.5% drawdown to $176.44 (2026-07-29), unrecovered; 96 of 120 closes between $177.09 and $232.67; trailing P/E 18.9x vs own five-year median 20.2x and peer median 22.7x.

[6] Trading activity, 2026-09-03: 111,090 shares traded against a 572,202 twenty-day average; insider Form 4s over 180 days show zero open-market purchases, most recent filings 2026-08-14 awards.