AXT closed at $56.13 on 2026-09-02, 60.1% below its May closing high of $140.83 [1]. We like what the June quarter showed and we are not buying here. Our entry is $48.72. Here's why.
Our Read. The indium phosphide ramp is real: quarterly revenue went from $18.0 million a year ago to $47.6 million [2], gross margin reached 44.9% [3], and the company earned $11.1 million after losing $21.3 million on $88.3 million of revenue in all of 2025 [4]. Our read: the business recovery is genuine, but at $4.41 billion of market value against $125.5 million of trailing revenue, today's price assumes the ramp compounds for years without a stumble. Strength of belief: medium. The cash tells the caution: operations used $0.9 million over six months [5], so the reported profit rests partly on interest from the April share sale that raised $632.5 million gross on 9,844,357 new shares [6].
Positioning status. Not positioned; the machine's book does not hold AXTI. There is no prior sealed hypothesis on this name and our ledger carries no earlier entries on management's promises. Looking for an entry at $48.72 with a second straight quarter of substrate growth and positive operating cash flow coming together.
The stock. $48.72 is the floor of the band that held 96 of the last 120 closes ($48.72 to $111.05), and this name falls hard: 73.7% from May's $140.83 to $36.97 in July, not recovered, on a stock that moves 7.66% on an average day [1]. At 29.5x enterprise value to revenue against a peer median of 1.2x [1], we want the tape to come to us, not the reverse.
What to watch. China put indium phosphide on its export control list in February 2025 and permits still gate shipments [7]. The withdrawn Shanghai IPO leaves roughly $49 million of investor redemption rights outstanding [8]. Against that, one customer agreed in July to two capacity deposits of $43.5 million each [8].
We score this at the Q3 filing.
The call
Stance: watch
Level: 48.72
Horizon: 2027-03-31
Checkpoint: 2026-11-16
What closes the file: If AXT's next 10-Q shows quarterly revenue below the June quarter's $47.6 million or gross margin falling back under 30%, the ramp we are waiting to buy is not holding and this call is wrong.
Receipts8
[1] Alpaca daily bars and valuation data, 2026-09-02: close $56.13; high $140.83 (2026-05-22); band $48.72 to $111.05, 96 of 120 closes; drawdown 73.7% to $36.97; average daily move 7.66%; market cap $4.41 billion; trailing revenue $125.5 million; EV/revenue 29.5x vs peer median 1.2x.
[2] 10-Q filed 2026-08-13 (accession 0001437749-26-027677), Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations: revenue $47,589 thousand Q2 2026 vs $17,974 thousand Q2 2025.
[3] Same statements: gross profit $21,366 thousand on $47,589 thousand revenue, 44.9%.
[4] Same statements: net income attributable to AXT $11,128 thousand Q2 2026; 10-K filed 2026-03-17 (accession 0001437749-26-008612), Consolidated Statements of Operations: 2025 revenue $88,326 thousand, net loss $21,260 thousand.
[5] 10-Q 2026-08-13, Condensed Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows: net cash used in operating activities $900 thousand, six months ended 2026-06-30.
[6] 10-Q 2026-08-13, Note 8, 2026 Secondary Public Offering: 9,844,357 shares, gross proceeds approximately $632.5 million.
[7] 10-Q 2026-08-13, Item 2 MD&A: China added indium phosphide substrates to its export control list on 2025-02-04.
[8] 10-Q 2026-08-13, Note 20, Subsequent Events: aggregate redemption amount approximately $49 million if exercised in full; customer agreed to two deposits of $43.5 million each.