The Desk

A first look

Welcome to
The Desk.

The Desk is a public record of research, portfolio decisions, and the receipts that let you follow both.

Your choice is remembered on this browser. Continue will open the page you originally requested.

The DeskPermanent publication recordJoin the email list
Menu

Close · PASS

The Close

Back to publications

At a glance

Format
Close
Published
Account basis
Paper account
Receipts
14

Eleven orders filled today across two sleeves plus the cash sweep. The conviction sleeve made no moves [1]. Per-sleeve day P&L and book state: not in today's packet [2].

EMA sleeve: five buys, all cash redeployment

The rule that fired on every one is the same: redeploy queued cash into the signal. Cash stood at 43.1% of the sleeve when the queue was built [3].

  • Added AXON, sizing 2.73% intended @ 599.67 fill. The signal price was 600.73, which is 23.2% below its 52-week high of 781.90 and sits at the top of its 120-day band (391.17 to 607.68). Options positioning: the level where market makers who sold options concentrate their hedging sits at 600 for both puts and calls, right at the entry [4].
  • Added UMAC, sizing 1.09% intended @ 23.8056 fill. The theme multiplier cut the size to 0.85x because the AI and robotics theme reads as bottoming. No cached market context existed for this name at decision time; the packet says so plainly [5].
  • Added PLPC, sizing 1.47% intended @ 411.42 fill. Theme multiplier 1.25x, Innovation tagged as leading. No cached market context and no options data on file for this name [6].
  • Added NVDA, sizing 1.19% intended @ 216.936667 fill. Signal at 217.55, which is 7.7% below the May high of 235.74 and near the top of its 120-day band (178.67 to 222.37). Hedging pressure clusters at 220 on the call side and 217.50 on the put side, so the buy landed between the two [7].
  • Added AMZN, sizing 1.21% intended @ 262.69 fill. Signal at 266.43, 6.2% off the August high of 284.02. Put-side hedging concentrates at 260, call-side at 265 [8].

Autonomous sleeve: four committee-approved sells

All four are broken-fit exits or trims, not drawdown panic. Each committee note weighed the backtest finding that selling into 4% to 8% drawdowns historically underperformed holding, and each concluded the driver was a broken thesis, not a dip.

  • Trimmed UUUU, roughly half the position, executed at 4.70% of equity @ 14.64 fill. The reasons: the nuclear theme is fading, the stock's 90-day swing measure (beta 3.62) is outside the band our harvesting system can work with, and our record in the name is poor. A residual lot stays in case buying interest at the 14.50 put level holds; that is where option sellers' hedging would slow further falls. The stock is 47.1% off its January high [9].
  • Trimmed AOSL to zero, 2.19% of equity @ 24.30 fill. The position was down 3.9%, inside the band the backtest says to hold through, but the committee ruled it a broken fit: beta of 5.12 is twice the harvest ceiling, the ai_semis theme is fading, and the close broke below 25, the level where put hedging had been providing support. The stock is 53.8% off its June high [10].
  • Sold COHR in full, a 1.27% of equity stub @ 277.29 fill. Down 3.4%, again in the neutral zone, but the theme faded, price broke below the 280 level where hedging support sat, beta of 4.17 is outside the band, and the position was too small to defend [11].
  • Trimmed LEU, roughly a third of the position, executed at 9.99% of equity @ 172.49 fill. This one is a concentration cut, not a thesis kill: the committee says the HALEU monopoly thesis is intact, but the name was our second-largest single-stock exposure, beta of 4.2 is outside harvest tolerance, and the nuclear theme scores 40 of 100 with breadth 0 of 3. The stock is 59.7% off its October 2025 high and trades at roughly 70x trailing earnings against its own five-year points of 5x to 56x [12].

Conviction sleeve

No moves [1].

Cash sweep (mechanical, not a trade)

The morning sweep freed $47,122.92 of parked cash by selling SGOV @ 100.69 to fund the buys; two earlier attempts were refused by the broker for insufficient available quantity before the third went through. At day's end the sweep parked $58,506.70 back into SGOV @ 100.70 [13].


Receipts13

[1] trade_day packet 2026-08-31, section 1, conviction: empty list; counts: 11 filled, 2 refused.

[2] Same packet, "What came back no data": per-sleeve day P&L and book state not in today's packet.

[3] Section 1, EMA rows: trigger 's1_redeploy', cash_pct_at_queue 43.1 on each.

[4] Row dl-df7afef86e7a7918: AXON size_intended 2.7314, fill_px 599.67, signal 600.73, high_52w 781.9, off_high −23.17%, band 391.172 to 607.681, gex/put/call walls 600.

[5] Row dl-4b2845697d07382e: UMAC size_intended 1.091, fill_px 23.8056, theme 0.85x (AI / Robotics=bottoming), market_frame status 'no data'.

[6] Row dl-8a27d8b1d7d35942: PLPC size_intended 1.4706, fill_px 411.42, theme 1.25x (Innovation=leading), market_frame and options_frame 'no data'.

[7] Row dl-8fec7df846819f3e: NVDA size_intended 1.187, fill_px 216.936667, signal 217.55, high_52w 235.74 (2026-05-14), off_high −7.72%, band 178.668 to 222.37, call wall 220, put wall 217.5.

[8] Row dl-77da97b9b27758b1: AMZN size_intended 1.2116, fill_px 262.69, signal 266.43, high_52w 284.02 (2026-08-03), off_high −6.19%, put wall 260, call wall 265.

[9] Row dl-afa65e5cf660fb42: UUUU executed_pct 4.7005, fill_px 14.64, rationale (trim roughly half, put wall 14.5), strategist reason (beta 3.62, theme breadth 0/3, backtest caution), off_high −47.08%, high 2026-01-28.

[10] Row dl-799f66aaefa82d2e: AOSL executed_pct 2.1858, fill_px 24.30, strategist reason (−3.9% loss, beta_90d 5.12, FADING ai_semis, break below $25 put wall), off_high −53.81%, high 2026-06-02.

[11] Row dl-0a6566acf20ecfe5: COHR executed_pct 1.272, fill_px 277.29, strategist reason (−3.4%, beta 4.17, 1.3% weight), options put wall 280.

[12] Row dl-9b9e0ba928746959: LEU executed_pct 9.9888 (trim roughly a third), fill_px 172.49, strategist reason (second-largest concentration, beta 4.2, theme 40/100, breadth 0/3, HALEU thesis intact), off_high −59.68%, high 2025-10-15, pe_trailing 70.03 vs history points 4.98 to 56.06.

[13] Sweep rows dl-0ee1587b184e33af (fill_value 47,122.92 @ 100.69), dl-ab77b9d58e6a06e6 and dl-d22fd93b0dde063e (refused: insufficient qty available, requested 468, available 0), dl-dffe4a9c32a302fd (fill_value 58,506.70 @ 100.70).

Portfolio strategies

Rules-based EMA

buy

AXON: 5 sh at $600.73 ($3081 of cash, 1.00x deploy x 1.00x theme)

UMAC: 50 sh at $23.98 ($1208 of cash, 1.00x deploy x 0.85x theme)

PLPC: 4 sh at $404.05 ($1777 of cash, 1.00x deploy x 1.25x theme)

NVDA: 6 sh at $217.55 ($1422 of cash, 1.00x deploy x 1.00x theme)

AMZN: 5 sh at $266.43 ($1422 of cash, 1.00x deploy x 1.00x theme)

AXON: redeploy cash into the signal

UMAC: redeploy cash into the signal

PLPC: redeploy cash into the signal

NVDA: redeploy cash into the signal

AMZN: redeploy cash into the signal

Autonomous

sell

UUUU: Strategist approved 2.30% of equity; executed 351 sh at $14.65 (4.70% of equity)

AOSL: Strategist approved 2.20% of equity; executed 98 sh at $24.40 (2.19% of equity)

COHR: Strategist approved 1.30% of equity; executed 5 sh at $277.79 (1.27% of equity)

LEU: Strategist approved 3.00% of equity; executed 63 sh at $172.87 (9.99% of equity)

UUUU: We are trimming our uranium miner position because its nuclear theme is fading, the stock is too volatile for our system to harvest reliably, and our own track record in this name is poor. The backtest caution (selling into 4-8% drawdowns historically underperformed holding) is real, but here the thesis is genuinely weakening — beta 3.62 is outside our harvest band and theme breadth is 0/3 — which is a broken-fit case, not a mere pullback; a partial trim respects the risk while keeping optionality via the put-wall support at $14.5.

AOSL: We are trimming our AOSL position because the theme powering it is fading, the stock has broken key support, and its wild volatility makes it a poor fit for our system-harvest strategy. The -3.9% loss sits in the 4-8% band the backtest favors for HOLDING, so this is not a drawdown-panic sell; rather, beta_90d of 5.12 (2x the harvest ceiling), a FADING ai_semis theme, and a structural break below the $25 put wall make this a broken-fit exit rather than a drawdown exit — consistent with weighing the -$1,969/42%-win losing cohort being >=8% not -3.9%.

COHR: We are selling a small, thesis-broken position where the underlying theme has faded and the price has broken key support, not cutting into a healthy pullback. The backtest warns against selling into drawdowns, but at only -3.4% this sits in the neutral zone (not the losing >=8% cohort), and the driver here is a broken theme rather than a temporary dip; the 4.17 beta places it outside our harvest band and it is a negligible 1.3% weight not worth defending.

LEU: We're trimming our nuclear-fuel holding LEU partway to reduce our second-largest single-stock concentration, since the price trend has broken down even though the company's monopoly position remains intact. The 4-8% drawdown cohort is our best entry band (69% win) which cautions against a full exit, but beta 4.2 is outside harvest tolerance and the nuclear theme is fading (40/100, breadth 0/3), so a partial trim balances concentration risk against the strong backtest evidence that selling into drawdowns loses money.

Long-term conviction

none

No moves.

No conviction sleeve order was placed on this date.

Cash management

sweep

SGOV: parked value after the sweep as a % of equity: $2 of $109951 (free $47123 of $47125 needed)

SGOV: parked value after the sweep as a % of equity: $58504 of $109442 (park $58504 of $58513 excess cash)

SGOV: parked value after the sweep as a % of equity: $1 of $109601 (free $47123 of $47124 needed)

SGOV: parked value after the sweep as a % of equity: $1 of $109278 (free $47123 of $47124 needed)

SGOV: sweep_cash_free

SGOV: sweep_cash_park

SGOV: sweep_cash_free

SGOV: sweep_cash_free

Receipts14

Each entry identifies the source attached to this publication. Public sources open at the original host; retained receipts open a public verification page without exposing private references.

Sealed record

Body sha256 47ee0313aec9c53ef61aeb3e193822e606e597be7ed8d9d2d99b08f1df0dca78

Item sha256 fb9a56c4cd6032aa0eb5f6567fd0b8fe89b00c8c79b11db7423f586ad8507b6d · recipe 1

Immutable envelope sha256 13be9dd56d74c708ea6460641790ff5efa3dfa7802762aadee2bf6c6ff3d4e82 · public version 1

Publication lifecycle

Approved
  1. Approved publication

    Public version 1 · recorded